Referral patterns and predictors of referral delays for patients with traumatic injuries in rural Rwanda

Background: In developing countries, 9 out of 10 patients lack access to timely operative care. Most patients seek care at district hospitals that often lack operative capacity, creating a need for referral. Delays in referrals contribute to substantial disability and death. This study assessed the predictors of delayed referrals for injured patients.

Methods: This retrospective cohort study included injured patients, recommended for referral between January 1, 2013, and December 31, 2013, from 3 rural district hospitals in Rwanda. We defined delay as nonexecution of referral 2 days after referral recommendation. We performed a multivariate logistic regression using stepwise backward selection to identify the predictors of delayed referral.

Results: Of the 1,227 injured patients, 23.0% (n = 282) were recommended for referral. Of these, 36.5% (n = 103) had road traffic injuries and 53.6% (n = 151) were diagnosed with closed fractures/dislocation. Among 231 patients, 108 (46.8%) had a delay in referral execution. The predictors of delay included age >35 years (odds ratio = 2.45, 95% confidence interval: 1.09–5.50), closed fractures/dislocation (odds ratio = 16.37, 95% confidence interval: 3.13–85.78), admission to surgical wards (odds ratio = 10.25, 95% confidence interval: 2.70–38.82), and a duration ≥7 days from admission to referral recommendation (odds ratio = 4.80, 95% confidence interval: 1.38–16.63).

Conclusion: Over 50% of referrals were completed in a timely fashion due to a strong referral system and a patient support program. Empowering district hospitals with trained staff and appropriate equipment could reduce the need for referral, and increasing surgeons at referral hospitals could reduce referral delays.